中枢不雅点

90年代后期以来，我国逐步酿成了“地皮驱动式增长”的发展模式。这一模式的实质是将地皮转用和出让历程中的升值收益，鼎新为工业坐蓐和投资的激发，从而拉动经济增长。但跟着房地产市集下行，从地皮到经济增长的通谈被堵截，带来了结构阵痛。咱们合计“后地产期间”的经济转型仍然依赖于地皮雠校的鼓舞，地皮战略要从“供给创造需求”鼎新为“需求拉动供给”，保险更有需求的经济施展地区用地，建迅速皮看法跨省来去机制；并鼓舞农村“三块地”雠校，开释7.5亿农村户籍东谈主口需求，推动经济从投资驱动转为破钞驱动，弥补房地产投资下行带来的总需求不及问题。

地皮雠校与增长模式转型

1、收拢阻力较小的窗口期鼓舞地皮雠校

即使2015年后地皮驱动增长的角落效益箝制下落，但只消这一模式仍能督察运行，雠校的阻力就会大于推力。2021年以来的房地产市集下行，从根柢上堵截了从地皮供给到经济增长的退换通谈，尽管带来了结构阵痛，但也减小了雠校阻力。

地皮雠校最根柢的是调养地皮战略的看法，昔日地皮战略的看法所以供给创造需求，往后要更扎眼用需求拉动供给。一是“地随东谈主走”，建立东谈主地挂钩机制，增强地皮成分对上风地区高质料发展保险智商；二是农村“三块地雠校”，不错开释7.5亿农村户籍东谈主口需求，推动经济发展从投资驱动向破钞驱动鼎新。

2、地随东谈主走，建迅速皮看法跨省来去机制

2024年中央深改委第四次会议提议“增强地皮成分对上风地区高质料发展保险智商”，东谈主地挂钩战略预测将成为本轮地皮雠校的重心看法，建立完善地皮看法来去机制是病笃内容。地皮看法来去是横向篡改支付的病笃工夫，既不错惩处东部地区“缺地”的问题，也有助于惩处中西部财政“缺钱”的问题。

3、农村“三块地雠校”：开释7.5亿东谈主口需求

不错通过地皮雠校开释7.5亿东谈主口需求，从而推动经济发展从投资驱动向破钞驱动转型，弥补因房地产投资下行带来的总需求不及。

此前的“地皮驱动增长”模式，为了保险工业化和城镇化用地需求，农村的地皮发展权受到许多实践料理，使得这7.5亿东谈主口的办事、收入和财产收益也受到一定制约。集体成就用地使用受限，使得农村经济活动和办事渠谈单一，许多办事被绑定在农业上头，农村难以通过非农产业完毕收入增长；另一方面，农村成就用地和屋基地出租、转让的法则使得农民周折财产性收入，以至农村住户财产性收入只消城镇住户的尽头之一，是城乡收入差距的主要起首。如若冒昧通过地皮雠校惩处这些问题，赋予农村与城镇对等的地皮发展权，将能更猛进度开释7.5亿农村户籍东谈主口的需求，促进经济发展阵势鼎新。

风险教导：（1）雠校阻力较大，战略落地偏慢；（2）房地产市集和房地产战略出现超预期变化；（3）地皮市集出现其他变化。

正文如下

以上为敷陈部老实容，好意思满敷陈请检讨《后地产期间，“地皮驱动式增长”何如转型——三中全会系列之三地皮雠校》。

本文源自券商研报精选

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